Storm clouds still heavy around Liberals as cabinet meets for retreat in Halifax

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will kick off a three-day cabinet retreat in Halifax on Sunday, where the themes are fairness and Canada-U.S. relations, but the feelings are all about déjà vu.

A year ago in Charlottetown the cabinet hoped its annual post-summer retreat and the massive cabinet shuffle that preceded it would give new life to the Liberal government.

Spoiler alert: They did not.

Trudeau and his team are so far behind the Conservatives in the polls that if they were on a running track they’d have been lapped by now, and with the next election at most a year away, the runway to recover is growing shorter by the day.

Interest rates have started to come down. Inflation is back in a normal range. Wage growth has been strong.

But housing costs and availability remain extremely challenging, food prices are still high and the Liberals have been unable to counter messaging from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre that life has become more expensive and unsafe under Trudeau’s watch.

In June, the Liberals lost a long-held Toronto seat to the Conservatives, further eroding what was left of the fragile confidence the party had that they could stage a miraculous comeback with Trudeau still at the helm.

The cabinet met briefly online over the summer to sign off on some appointments, but the working dinner that kicks off the retreat Sunday will mark the first in-person meeting since that byelection.

Marci Surkes, the chief strategy officer at the Compass Rose government relations firm and a former senior Liberal staffer, said most cabinet retreats are 90 per cent focused on the business of government and 10 per cent on politics and caucus management. This time, she said, there may be more focus on the latter, especially in the more informal conversations on the sidelines.

“I think what’s on the agenda at this retreat is probably even less important than simply having it be a moment to convene,” she said.

This government “desperately needs” a reset, she said. But that may be as much about being better able to respond to the constant changes happening in the world and in Canada, rather than trying to game out every step of the next six to 12 months before the vote.

“I think the reality for this retreat is that in some respects it’s less about the agenda and the programming as it is being able to have some real, frank conversations about where they all stand and whether they have the energy, the muster, the ideas and the drive to keep going,” said Surkes.

The cabinet shuffle in July 2023 saw seven ministers dropped completely and seven new faces added, while 22 of the remaining 30 ministers moved into different roles. Only minor changes have been made since, and Trudeau has thus far chosen not to shuffle the cabinet again before this fall.

Surkes noted that some of the fallout from that 2023 shuffle is still being felt.

Both the Toronto—St. Paul’s byelection, which the Liberals lost in June, and an upcoming byelection in Montreal’s Lasalle—Emard riding, came after former ministers who lost their portfolios — Carolyn Bennett and David Lametti — chose to exit politics altogether.

Bennett’s seat in Toronto was lost to the Conservatives after being a Liberal stronghold for nearly 30 years, and Lametti’s is in danger of being taken by the NDP when that vote happens Sept. 16, something Surkes said would be a “devastating blow.”

While the agenda may not be as interesting as the politics at this retreat, the ministers do have a set itinerary for their discussions. The retreat includes a full-day of meetings Monday on housing, fairness and affordability, and the middle class.

Tuesday is devoted to Canada-U.S. relations. Trudeau launched a new Team Canada mission in the U.S. earlier this year to push Canada’s interests ahead of the presidential election.

The strategy, which Surkes jokingly called the “maple charm offensive,” is focused on shoring up Canada’s defences in case Donald Trump is voted back into the White House in November, but there are still irritants in the relationship even if Kamala Harris takes office.

Harris’s meteoric rise in the U.S. may be one of the things that gives some new energy to the Liberals. Her Democratic party and the Liberals overlap on many policy fronts, on everything from school lunches and women’s reproductive rights to climate change and clean energy.

What is not lost on many Liberals is that President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race brought a sudden surge of energy and momentum for the Democrats.

Speculation about Trudeau’s future has been a favourite game in Canadian political circles for years, though he has not suggested that he is even considering leaving. Surkes said she doesn’t think what happened for the Democrats will compel Trudeau to follow Biden’s lead.

“I expect to see lots of borrowing of technique, borrowing of language, but a wholesale shift in terms of the person at the front of the stage and on the podium? I don’t know that that is in store for the Liberals in the coming weeks,” she said. “But there’s no question in my mind that much of what we’re seeing down there is going to find its way into what happens here in the next six months in terms of agenda.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 24, 2024.